نتانياهو : في حال انتخابي مجددا لن تقام دولة فلسطينية !Seven post-election scenarios
Seven post-election scenarios: What could happen after
Israel votes?
Will the polls
hold, which party could surprise, who will be wiped out and will Bibi or Bougie
get the nod from President Rivlin to form the next government?
The poll blackout since Friday
evening means that for the last four days of the Israeli election polls, aside
from rumors regarding the parties' own internal polling, we have little
indication of the final and crucial voting trends. In the absence of information,
we can only go on the current polls, which – perhaps unsurprisingly – are
pretty uniform and on the kind of known unknowns that we can try to foresee
based on previous elections.
As the
voting ends at 10 P.M. on Tuesday, the three main television channels will
broadcast their exit-polls. These are usually quite accurate, and are swiftly
updated with results coming in from districts which have finished their count.
The picture may be quite clear by midnight; but if the gap between the two largest
parties (Likud and Zionist Union) is close, and if any of the smaller parties
are hovering around the electoral threshold, it may take a couple of days
before the soldiers’ votes are in before we know for certain. And then of
course, there will be long weeks of meetings at the president's residence and
coalition horse-trading.
With all
that taken into account, here are the main scenarios and sub-plots which could
play out from Tuesday night onwards.
Scenario 1: The polls hold
– Kahlon goes with Netanyahu
Nearly all
the polls released on Thursday and Friday had Likud trailing Zionist Union by four seats. However,
despite being in the lead, Isaac Herzog’s list hasn’t made that big a
breakthrough, receiving at the most 26 seats. Neither has Benjamin
Netanyahu suffered a complete meltdown and in most of the polls, the bloc of
right-wing and religious parties expected to support a Likud government is
slightly larger than the center-left bloc which will probably nominate Herzog.
With such an
outcome, Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu, currently polling at around ten seats, will
hold the balance. The hopeful scenario in Netanyahu's circle is that Kahlon hasn't
abandoned his Likudnik roots, and after exacting a hefty price from Netanyahu
(the finance ministry for starters) he will recommend him to the president.
Scenario 2: The polls hold
- Herzog forms a government
The major
flaw in the previous scenario is Kahlon's evident antipathy and distrust
towards Netanyahu. While he has remained opaque throughout the campaign, there
is ample evidence that he has not changed his opinion of his old boss and will
be happy to bring him down and serve in a Herzog cabinet. Kahlon's
recommendation will deny Netanyahu the top job, but Herzog
will still have to find a creative way to build a coalition that will have to
include both ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, and Yesh
Atid to command a Knesset majority.
At present,
that seems impossible, with the rabbis saying they will never sit with Yair
Lapid in the same government, but once the election is over, all bets are off
and if anyone can create that unlikely coalition, Herzog,
the soft-spoken lawyer and grandson of a chief rabbi is the man.
Scenario 3:
The polls hold – National Unity government
Instead of
choosing between another Netanyahu government and burning his bridges with his
old Likud friends, Kahlon could well choose the middle path and urge both party
leaders to form a national unity coalition which will include the two big
parties, Kulanu and the Haredim. He will find President Reuven
Rivlin a willing partner for such a construction. Netanyahu has repeatedly
ruled out such an outcome during the campaign but once the prospect of
opposition and quite likely political demise is staring him in the face, he is
likely to come around.
Herzog, as
well, may realize that sharing with Netanyahu is the only way to boost his
lackluster image and appear a national leader. The main sticking point of
course will be who gets to be prime minister. Rotation between the two party
leaders, as Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir agreed upon in 1984 (with the
encouragement of Herzog's father, then the president) is the likely solution. But even
if they agree to split the term between them, who goes first?
Scenario 4:
Polling upset – Collapse in Likud vote
In every
election over the last two decades, there has been a last-minute surge of
previously undecided voters, worth at
least six seats for one of the parties, that the pollsters failed to detect in
advance. In 2013, the
beneficiary of the Election Day surprise was Yesh Atid, which catapulted way
beyond expectations to second place with nineteen seats.
Who will
reap those late-deciders on Tuesday? There are a number of possible scenarios.
Many believe it could be Kahlon who is still
seen as the dark horse in this election. If the current pattern of former
Likud voters opting this time for Kulanu deepens, a late surge for Kahlon would
almost certainly come at Netanyahu's expense, widening the gap between Likud
and Zionist Union and making it much easier for Herzog to claim he has a
mandate. Forming a coalition would still take some maneuvering, but at least
Netanyahu, as leader of a party with less than twenty seats, would be out of the picture.
Scenario 5:
Polling upset – Netanyahu closes the gap
Likud has
been in slow but steady decline in the polls for two months now, but a sudden
reversal of Netanyahu's fortunes as the last-minute election surprise is not an
unrealistic scenario. There are a lot of Likudniks out there who could
change their minds, particularly in Naftali Bennett's Habayit Hayehudi
which in 2013 jumped to twelve seats, largely at Likud's expense. While Bennett
will only sit in a right-wing government, the urgent message has been going out
to his voters that if the gap between Likud and Zionist Union isn't closed,
there won't be such a government.
Anecdotal
evidence so far indicates that the message is effective. Four seats
worth of voters going back to Likud from Habayit Hayehudi could be enough to
close the gap. The Israeli left and much of the media has been euphoric in
recent days over the prospect of saying farewell to Netanyahu. Erasing the gap
would shatter them and Netanyahu should have a clear path to forming a
coalition if he achieves near-parity with Herzog.
Scenario 6:
Polling upset – Small party wipeout
Three
parties are currently hovering perilously close to the electoral threshold of
3.25 percent of the vote. Nearly all the polls have Meretz, Yahad and Yisrael Beitenu crossing
over into the next Knesset but the margin of error leaves room for doubt,
especially with the prospect of a higher than average turnout due to an expected rise in the Arab sector. If any of
the three are wiped out, it could have implications on the overall picture. A new Knesset without Meretz would
leave Herzog's Zionist Union the sole remnant in what was once the largest
political camp of the Zionist left (even Labor doesn't call itself left any
longer).
Even with a
largish advantage over Likud, Herzog would find it impossible to build a
majority without Meretz and the best he could hope for would be a
national-unity government. On the right, losing
either Yisrael Beitenu or Yahad would be less of a blow to Netanyahu. He has
other parties supporting him. He would even be happy if Avigdor Lieberman's
party was wiped out as he the two have fallen out and Lieberman has refused to
endorse him as prime minister. Neither would Yahad failing to cross the
threshold be fatal as at least one of its members, the Kahanist Baruch Merzel,
will never be a member of his coalition.
But what if two of the parties fail? Without Yahad
and Yisrael Beitenu, the center-left bloc would probably be bigger for the
first time since 1992, decisively denying Netanyahu a fourth term. If Meretz
and one of the right-wing parties are obliterated and if all three are wiped
out, it will change the electoral calculus but Herzog will still probably be
the worse off.
Scenario 7 - Deadlock
Next week,
once the final and official results are in, consultations with begin with the
president. Whoever Rivlin believes has the best chance will receive the mandate
to
form a coalition in four weeks, with a possible extension of
another two if necessary. Whether Herzog or Netanyahu get the nod, it will
almost certainly be a protracted and grinding process which will ruin the
Pesach and Independence Day holidays for political journalists and a small
group of lawyers will accumulate a nice pile of future favors owed.
What if
the selected candidate fails? Netanyahu may hold a majority on paper but have exhausted
his potential partners trust and goodwill. Herzog could lead by a significant
gap but still fail in bridging the chasm between Haredim and Lapid. If the
first choice fails, then another politician will get a chance for four more
weeks. If that doesn't work, the mandate is passed to the newly elected Knesset
where for three weeks any member can present a majority.
Even the
most deadlocked elections have eventually yielded a government, but the
obstacles this time around may prove insurmountable. If the process is
exhausted, then 90 days after the final deadline, another election is held.
Back to the polls by September? An unbearable thought but a not
implausible scenario.
ارتفعت وتيرة التصريحات العنصرية الصادرة من قادة الاحزاب الاسرائيلية قبل ساعات من انطلاق سباق الانتخابات للكنيست.
فيما اكملت لجنة الانتخابات المركزية استعداداتها لعملية الاقتراع في الانتخابات للكنيست العشرين غدا.
ويبلغ عدد اصحاب حق الاقتراع 5,883,365 بحسب معطيات لجنة الانتخابات المركزية.
وستفتح مراكز الاقتراع ابوابها عند الساعة السابعة صباحا على ان تغلق ابوابها العاشرة ليلا. اما مراكز الاقتراع في القرى التي يقل عدد سكانها عن 350 فستفتح ابوابها من الساعة الثامنة صباحا لغاية الثامنة مساء.
واعدت لجنة الانتخابات 11,666 في جميع انحاء دولة الكيان ومن بينها 1,547 مركزا لذوي الاحتياجات الخاصة والمعاقين سيتم التصويت فيها بمظاريف مزدوجة خشية التزوير.
وفي الناصرة اعرب العديد من السكان عن تذمرهم من تقليص عدد مراكز الاقتراع من 89 مركزا الى 83 مما ادى الى نقل المئات من اصحاب حق الاقتراع الى مراكز اقتراع بعيدة عن منازلهم.
واعربت المديرة العامة للجنة الانتخابات المركزية المحامية اورلي عدس عن املها في ان تشهد نسبة التصويت في هذه الانتخابات ارتفاعا ملحوظا.
واشارت المحامية عدس الى ان اللجنة اتخذت سلسلة اجراءات خاصة لضمان نزاهة الانتخابات.
ويأتي ذلك في وقت تعهد رئيس الوزراء الحالي بنيامين نتنياهو ببناء الاف الوحدات السكنية الجديدة في انحاء القدس في حال انتخابه مجددا رئيسا للوزراء.
وقال نتنياهو ذلك خلال جولة قام بها في حي هار حوما بجنوب القدس، مشيرا الى انه بادر الى اقامة هذا الحي في عام 1997 على الرغم من معارضة المجتمع الدولي.
وفي حديث لموقع nrg الاخباري صرح نتنياهو بانه في حال انتخابه مجددا لن تقام دولة فلسطينية.
من جانبه صرح وزير الخارجية الاسرائيلي افيغدور ليبرمان بأنه يجب الإطاحة بنظام حركة حماس في قطاع غزة وهذا هو الهدف الرئيسي الملقى على عاتق الحكومة الاسرائيلية القادمة.
وقال ليبرمان خلال جولة قام بها في قرية نتيف هعاسراة المتاخمة لقطاع غزة أن حماس تواصل حفر الأنفاق وتطوير الصواريخ وذلك بسبب كون القيادة الإسرائيلية ضعيفة، وعليه يجب تغيير تعامل إسرائيل مع هذه الحركة .
وردا على سؤال استبعد ليبرمان جملة وتفصيلا التوصل إلى اتفاقات مع حماس حول وقف القتال معها، مؤكدا أن الاتفاق الوحيد ممكن بعد تصفية قيادة حماس بأكملها.
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